… But Not to Certainty
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has repeatedly followed the same pattern:
- long periods of skepticism,
- explosive bull runs,
- significant corrections,
- followed by new all-time highs.
The declines were often drastic. A drop of 60–85% was not uncommon in past cycles. Nevertheless, higher highs were consistently reached over the long term.
The monthly chart shown here strongly resembles such a phase. A sharp rise to around $126,000 was followed by a steep correction. The price is now well below the short-term and medium-term moving averages (MA7 and MA30). In the short term, this suggests weakness rather than strength.
Historically, however, this would not be unusual. In the past, Bitcoin has often consolidated for several months or even over a year before a new uptrend began.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
- Stabilization in the range of 50,000–60,000 USD
- Formation of a bottom
- followed by a slow return toward previous highs
Bearish Scenario
- Break below key support levels
- Further correction into lower price ranges
- Prolonged sideways phase before a new cycle begins
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s history shows that every major bull market to date has been accompanied by a painful correction. At the same time, there is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat itself. Past price performance is not a predictor of future results.
Investors with a long-term perspective should therefore focus less on individual months and more on the overall market cycle.